Vibha Sharma
New Delhi, September 14
With the deadline drawing close, all eyes are on whether the Centre will extend its ambitious free foodgrain scheme—the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana—beyond September 30 given the current wheat stocks and the red herring by the Expenditure Department.
While most of state governments, including BJP-ruled, wanting the scheme to continue, sources say the Centre too is considering extending the food programme keeping in mind the upcoming festival season and the “political situation in the country”, say sources.
“The Centre may be inclined to continue it for the next couple of months. However, the final decision if the scheme (5-kg free grain to NFSA beneficiaries which started in March 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic) is extended beyond September 30 depends upon the top leadership,” they say.
As per the FCI website, the current rice stock in the country is 244.63 LMT (lakh metric tonne) and wheat is 248.22 LMT. Paddy procurement will begin next month while the total quantity of unmilled paddy with FCI and state agencies is around 161.60 LMT. In other words, the rice situation is “quite comfortable”.
However, so far as wheat is concerned, the government has to work with the existing stock for the next six months when the new crops will arrive. At the current consumption, around 20 to 21 LMT wheat is required every month. As per the stocking norms 44.60 LMT as operational stock and 30 LMT as strategic reserves should exist on April 1 when next crops start arriving.
Though the overall food grain production is estimated at a record in the 2021-22 crop year, wheat production was affected by heat wave, resulting in shrivelled grains in Punjab and Haryana. The next wheat crop will come into the market from April 1, 2023, and till then the country has to rely on existing stocks.
In view of the wheat status the government had increased the quota of rice in free rations which is now being objected by states where wheat is consumed, the sources add.
“The Centre can carry on for another two-three months on the account of rice. To extend the scheme will be a political decision given the costs involved,” they say, adding that given the quantum of rice in the buffer stock, free foodgrains can be provided to the poor for another three months till December 2022. So far the scheme has been extended six times, the last being on April 1. Initially announced for a three-month period (April-June 2020), it was extended several times, with the sixth phase ending September.
Notably, the Expenditure Department under the Finance Ministry is believed to have advised against extending the schemes on grounds of food security and fiscal grounds.
Notably, the government has put restrictions on the export of wheat and flour. In order to ensure food security in the country, the government prohibited export of wheat in May. However, this caused a jump in overseas demand for wheat flour.
Kharif rice production is expected to fall by 10-12 million tonnes this season due to poor rains in some places and factors like diversification. The government has also put restrictions on the export of broken rice.
