Vijay Mohan
Chandigarh, September 20
With the monsoon commencing its withdrawal for this year today, the northern states of Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh stare at the possibility of receiving below normal rains this season.
Since June 1 till date, rainfall in the agrarian states of Punjab and Haryana has been short of the long period average by 21 percent and 18 percent respectively, while in the hill state of Himachal Pradesh it is deficient by 10 percent.
The southwest monsoon has withdrawn from parts of southwest Rajasthan and adjoining Kutch today against its normal date of September 17, a bulletin issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) today said.
The prevailing level of anti-cyclonic circulation, no rainfall during last five days and
water vapour imagery indicating dry weather conditions over the region have been cited as the conditions indicating withdrawal of the monsoon.
According to IMD, conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the monsoon from parts of Northwest India, which includes the three aforementioned states, during next two days.
Due to anti-cyclonic flow over northwest India at lower tropospheric levels, dry weather is very likely to prevail over west Rajasthan, Punjab and adjoining areas of Haryana during the next five days, reducing the possibility of the deficit covering up.
IMD data shows that from June 1 to September 20, Punjab received 328.7 mm rain as compared to the long period average of 418.1 mm for this period. Haryana received 338.1 mm against the normal of 411.7 mm while Himachal Pradesh received 631.8 mm against the normal of 705.5 mm.
Rains in these three states during the month of September so far have also been severely deficient. The shortfall is 80 percent in both Punjab and Haryana and 43 percent in Himachal. While all districts in Himachal received below normal rain this month, only one district each in Punjab and Haryana, Nawanshahar and Mewat respectively, received surplus rain.
Weather experts said that while the next few days in the region are expected to be dry, the possibility of more rain later this month cannot be ruled out. There have been instances in the past of heavy downpour in late September and October.
This year is witnessing the earliest withdrawal of monsoon after 2016, when it commenced on September 15. Available data shows that the monsoon had commenced its withdrawal on October 6 in 2021, on September 28 in 2020, on October 9 in 2019, on September 29 in 2018 and on September 27 in 2017.
